The NBA draft lottery awards one team the No. 1 pick in June.
There are several teams that need the kind of player who can transform a franchise and make it a contender.
And unless there’s a major draft-day trade, the team with the top pick will select France’s Victor Wembanyama.
But here is something else to consider: in the past 30 seasons, there are just three No. 1 overall picks who have won a championship with the team that drafted them, and one of the players comes with a caveat.
Kyrie Irving, the No. 1 pick by Cleveland in the 2011 draft, won a title with the Cavaliers in 2016, and LeBron James, the No. 1 pick by the Cavs in the 2003 draft, also won a title with Cleveland in 2016. However, James left Cleveland for Miami in 2010 and returned to the Cavs after his four-year stint with the Heat. Tim Duncan, San Antonio’s No. 1 pick in 1997, led the Spurs to five titles.
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Regardless, the team with the No. 1 pick will take its chance on the best player available.
When is the NBA draft lottery?
Tuesday, May 16 in Chicago at 8 p.m. ET
What channel is the NBA draft lottery on?
ESPN
How does the NBA draft lottery work?
According to the NBA, ‘Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams.
‘All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks.’
The remaining lottery teams are slotted in order of their draft odds.
The lottery is conducted in a separate room just before ESPN’s draft lottery show. Select media, NBA officials and representatives of the participating teams and the accounting firm Ernst & Young will be in attendance in the room for the drawings.
What are the NBA draft lottery odds for each team?
1. Detroit − 14%
2. Houston − 14%
3. San Antonio − 14%
4. Charlotte − 12.5%
5. Portland − 10.5%
6. Orlando − 9%
7. Indiana − 6.8%
8. Washington − 6.7%
9. Utah − 4.5%
10. Dallas − 3% (Pick is top-10 protected but will go to New York if pick falls outside of top 10.)
11. Chicago − 1.8% (Pick is top-four protected but will go to Orlando if pick falls outside of the top four.)
12. Oklahoma City − 1.7%
13. Toronto − 1%
14. New Orleans − .5%
The three teams with the best odds — Pistons, Rockets, Spurs — also have a 52.13% chance to land a top-four pick.
Who is the projected No. 1 NBA draft pick?
France’s Victor Wembanyama is the clear-cut No. 1 pick and has been for some time. He’s 19 with an impressive skill set — a guard’s game in a big man’s body and a big man’s game in a 7-2 frame. He’s athletic, can handle the basketball, shoot it, pass and he possesses great footwork and shot-blocking ability. Think Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant — if Wembanyama maximizes his potential.
This season, Wembanyama is averaging 21.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.1 blocks, 2.4 assists and is shooting 54.7% from the field. He will need to improve on his 29.2% 3-point shooting.
Wembanyama will become the first player from France drafted No. 1 overall.
Who else is a projected high pick in the NBA draft?
Scoot Henderson, 19, played for the G League Ignite the past two seasons. In 2022-23, he averaged 17.6 points, 6.6 assists and 5.1 rebounds and shot 44.4% from the field and 32.4% on 3-pointers.
Brandon Miller, 20, spent his freshman season at Alabama. The 6-9 forward averaged 18.9 points and 8.2 rebounds and shot 43.3% from the field and 37.9% on 3s.
Amen and Ausar Thompson: The 20-year-old twins played in Overtime Elite the past two seasons. They are 6-7 perimeter players. Ausar averaged 16.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 6.1 assists and shot 56.2% from the field and 29.8% on 3s and Amen averaged 16.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.9 assists and shot 66.2% from the field and 25% on 3s in 2022-23.
NBA draft lottery simulator results
Using tankathon.com’s draft lottery simulator, this is what the draft lottery results could look like:
1. Detroit
2. Houston
3. Chicago
4. San Antonio
5. Charlotte
6. Portland
7. Orlando
8. Indiana
9. Washington
10. Utah
11. Dallas
12. Oklahoma City
13. Toronto
14. New Orleans
Follow NBA reporter Jeff Zillgitt on Twitter @JeffZillgitt