The NFL’s 2024 regular season is little more than 10% complete, yet a whole faction of the league’s teams is staring at a roughly 90% probability that their Super Bowl hopes are already dashed. Nine clubs are winless after two weeks – which isn’t quite a death knell as it pertains to playoff aspirations, but it does essentially put them on life support.
“(We’re) 0-2,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said after Baltimore’s stunning home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday afternoon. “We’re going to play a 17-game season, and we will be defined by the next 15 games.
“So that’s going to be our objective – to play the best 15 games we can, be the best football team we can be. And if we do that, then we’re going to have a really good season, have a shot to win a lot of games and get in the playoffs and make a run, so that’s what we have to do.”
Sorry, Coach, but the odds are most definitely not in your favor.
Since the playoff field expanded to 12 teams in 1990, just 11.5% of teams (32 of 279) starting 0-2 have recovered to reach the postseason. Yet the barrier to entry for those squads has only gotten higher recently. Since the start of the 2019 season, two teams of 41 (4.9%) have survived a 0-2 rollout. You’d think with the Super Bowl bracket ballooning to 14 berths in 2020, the margin for error would increase, but not so.
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As for the Lombardi Trophy? Since 1990, only three teams – 1.1% – have overcome the 0-2 hurdle to win it all: The 1993 Dallas Cowboys (Emmitt Smith held out the first two games); 2001 New England Patriots (Tom Brady became their starter in Week 3); and 2007 New York Giants, who improbably knocked off the 18-0 Pats in Super Bowl 42.
The math is daunting yet also suggests one of this year’s heretofore winless outfits will surmount it to at least reach Week 19. Who could it be? Let’s rank their postseason viability from least likely to most:
9. Denver Broncos
Bo Nix has looked every bit a rookie quarterback so far, completing fewer than 60% of his passes – to teammates, anyway – serving up a league-worst four interceptions and engineering just 22 points on offense, worst in the AFC. But it’s not like he’s getting much playmaking around him, WR Josh Reynolds the only player on the team with more than 90 yards from scrimmage – and that because he hauled in a 49-yard pass in Sunday’s loss. Being mired in what still appears to be the tougher conference – and specifically in the AFC West, which can already be awarded to the Kansas City Chiefs (again) – hard to find a viable trail forward for the Broncos.
8. New York Giants
They have very few players who scare you, and a quarterback in Daniel Jones who forces opposing defenders to suppress smiles given his penchant for carelessness with the football. Only Carolina has scored fewer points than the Giants’ 24. And a defense allowing 5.3 yards per rush is going to struggle to get off the field – though New York has been tough in the red zone and held the Washington Commanders without a touchdown Sunday. Still, hard to envision this group going on a run … or even winning many games, especially if other teams focus on taking rookie WR Malik Nabers out of games.
7. Tennessee Titans
Strip out second-year QB Will Levis’ league-leading five turnovers, and we might be talking about a surprise 2-0 team rather than one that’s surrendered second-half leads in both losses. The defense has allowed the fewest yards in the league but hasn’t been able to offset Levis’ mistakes, generating only one takeaway of its own. There are some high-end players on this roster, even if expectations for this team have been generally muted. But there might be room for hope given two other AFC South squads are also winless, not to mention the fact QB2 Mason Rudolph came off the bench to lead the Pittsburgh Steelers’ playoff charge last year – and, given rookie HC Brian Callahan’s obvious frustration with Levis, it doesn’t seem like we’re a long way off from seeing Rudolph behind center.
6. Carolina Panthers
This might seem extraordinarily optimistic for a team that’s looked like the NFL’s worst on the field and on paper – league-low 13 points scored (not even half as many as New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara’s 30), league-high 73 points surrendered, league-worst 9.1% conversion rate on third down … the list goes on. Fortunately, two bad losses count the same as two near misses. Here again, living in the NFC should be an inherent advantage for Carolina. More important – and while it’s not exactly fair to expect a Joe Flacco effect – the promotion of veteran Andy Dalton, 36, to QB1 on Monday could have a cascading effect on a team that’s flatlined for a season-plus with Bryce Young, the top pick of the 2023 draft, at the controls.
Dalton started once last year, a 37-27 loss at Seattle in which he threw for 361 yards and two scores – and that game was about the best the Panthers offense has looked in the last year. This attack has capable weapons in WRs Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen and RBs Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders – and stands to get an even better one whenever rookie RB Jonathon Brooks, who tore his ACL while at the University of Texas last season, is ready to play. Losing DL Derrick Brown, arguably the team’s best player, to a season-ending knee injury is an obvious blow. But Dalton, who did a nice job as the Saints’ starter two years ago, has a legit shot to turn this around. And it’s incumbent on this roster at large to respond after rookie HC Dave Canales cited the needs of the greater good as his primary rationale for sitting Young.
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5. Jacksonville Jaguars
“We suck right now,” QB Trevor Lawrence said after Sunday’s loss to the Cleveland Browns. Gotta appreciate the man’s honesty. This defense hasn’t made many big plays (0 takeaways) but tends to surrender them, including four of more than 20 yards Sunday and two completions beyond 60 yards in Week 1, including a game-changing 80-yarder to Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill. The team’s lone turnover this year, RB Travis Etienne’s fumble on his way to an apparent game-clinching touchdown, preceded Hill’s score. And HC Doug Pederson’s game-management decisions occasionally continue to mystify. But the spotlight is fairly trained on Lawrence, who has lost seven straight starts going back to last season and has failed to execute on the plays that could’ve flipped the Jags’ 0-2 start to 2-0. The issues here seem correctable. Yet with upcoming trips to Buffalo and Houston, Lawrence and Co. are staring down the barrel to 0-4.
4. Indianapolis Colts
Like the Jaguars and Titans, they’re already in a two-game hole behind the Texans in the AFC South standings. The inconsistency of QB Anthony Richardson, 22, who shares the league’s interception lead (4) with Nix, shouldn’t come as a surprise given his relative inexperience at the position, which extends to high school and at the University of Florida. He’s also made nearly enough spectacular plays to guide this team to two wins. Richardson clearly needs to safeguard the ball better, but his defense also very much needs to help him out. The Colts, who just put Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner on injured reserve with an ankle injury, are allowing 237 yards per game on the ground – almost 40 yards clear of the next-worst team and a massive reason Indy ranks dead last in time of possession. Richardson’s going to make mistakes, but he can’t flash and HC Shane Steichen can’t execute his often-masterful game plans if the offense isn’t on the field.
3. Los Angeles Rams
A wild-card team last year, the Rams are very clearly being undermined by a flurry of injuries – Pro Bowl WR Puka Nacua, OL Jonah Jackson, Joe Noteboom and Steve Avila and DBs Darious Williams and John Johnson III already on IR, with WR Cooper Kupp (ankle) likely to miss an extended stretch. TE Tyler Higbee (knee) remains on the physically unable to perform list. A defense trying to adapt to life after the retirement of superstar Aaron Donald isn’t – already guilty of 33 missed tackles, by far the most in the league. The issues on the O-line, which also included a now-served suspension to OT Alaric Jackson, have led to a unit that can’t run the ball (NFC-low 68 yards per game on the ground) and has allowed seven sacks of 36-year-old QB Matthew Stafford. But a group that owns a Week 6 bye has time to get healthy, did survive a 3-6 start last year before a late-season surge and has a coach, Sean McVay, who has never retreated from a challenge.
2. Baltimore Ravens
You’re probably old enough to remember when they were the AFC’s top-seeded playoff team … which, of course, was last year. Presently, they’re suffering from a respectable loss to the Kansas City Chiefs and a bad one to the Raiders. While the signing of RB Derrick Henry was the team’s dominant offseason storyline, significant personnel losses on both sides of the ball – particularly in the trenches – and the departure of DC Mike Macdonald were at least as important. Henry’s been fine thus far, though, at 30, his best attribute might be the ability to draw defenders away from QB Lamar Jackson. Elsewhere, only four teams have allowed more points, and the O-line remains a work in progress. This is the Ravens’ first 0-2 start since 2015, and they’ve only had one losing season in the past eight and missed the postseason once in the past six campaigns – so it stands to reason they’ll figure things out. But with four of their next six games against 2023 playoff squads and another against Cincinnati, they better not wait long.
1. Cincinnati Bengals
You’re probably old enough to remember when they represented the AFC in the Super Bowl … which, of course, was three years ago – the only team in the past five seasons to prevent the Chiefs from appearing on Super Sunday. Presently, they’re suffering from a respectable loss to Kansas City and a bad one to the Patriots. Notoriously slow starters since QB Joe Burrow was drafted in 2020 – a collective 1-9 in Weeks 1 and 2 since, their only win coming in 2021 – he’s currently a significant part of the problem, responsible for all of Cincinnati’s league-high three fumbles. Predictably, he’s also on pace to be sacked 51 times. Furthermore, Burrow is dealing with the temporary absence of injured WR Tee Higgins, the permanent one of traded RB Joe Mixon, all while top playmaker Ja’Marr Chase appears clearly affected by his ongoing contract stalemate. Still, collectively, there probably isn’t a team among this group of nine with more upside than Cincinnati’s. And one distinction that may ultimately separate them from their AFC North rivals in Baltimore is the Bengals’ last-place schedule. Also noteworthy? The 2022 Stripes were one of the two teams in the last five years to dig out of the 0-2 hole. If Burrow is healthy and Chase is even-keeled, little reason to believe they can’t do it again.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.