The NCAA sheriff handed down some law at Southern California on Wednesday, and the next three weeks just got vitally important for coach Lincoln Riley.
In the simplest terms, the NCAA gave USC a get out of jail free card to fire Riley and escape his mega contract.
The NCAA placed the school on probation for one year, and fined it $50,000 for on- and off-field coaching by non-coaching analysts on staff.
More potentially damning to Riley, whose teams have lost nine of their last 12 games: Southern California agreed with the NCAA that Riley violated “head coach responsibility” rules. This means the school could fire Riley with cause and not have to pay off tens of millions in contract commitments.
That’s right, fire Riley and not owe him a penny.
I don’t want to get into the semantics of why the “head coach responsibility” charge isn’t as damaging because the rule was given more teeth in 2023 (two years after the Trojans hired Riley). All you need to know is there’s now a off ramp for USC in this growing mess.
No more former players ripping Riley and the program on social media. No more longtime Big Ten punching bags stealing USC’s conference thunder.
No more days of a top five program in all of college football middling around and losing to the Minnesotas and Marylands of the world.
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“You see the level of penalties that were levied,” Riley said. “If it’s something serious, they’re going to suspend the head coach.”
This, everyone, is the crux of the problem with Riley at Southern California. Every problem isn’t as big as it seems. Or isn’t his fault.
Can’t stop anyone on defense? No big deal, we’ll hire a new coordinator.
Can’t win one-possession games? No big deal, we’re only a handful of plays away from being unbeaten.
Can’t win games consistently in the Big Ten? We knew this would be a tough transition.
There’s always an excuse, always an out. The latest: QB Miller Moss keeps throwing the ball to the other team.
So now UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava takes over (he probably should’ve been playing earlier) to make it right in what has become an untenable situation.
Not only is the season over for the Trojans, the remaining three games are against teams that need it more.
Nebraska hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2016, and this week changed its offensive coordinator. The Huskers need one win to reach bowl eligibility.
Crosstown rival UCLA, which beat USC by 18 points last season, has won its last three games after finding its footing under first-year coach DeShaun Foster.
Rival Notre Dame can’t afford another loss if it expects to reach the College Football Playoff.
Riley is 23-13 at USC without a conference championship, and the coach he replaced (Clay Helton) was 26-10 in his first 36 games — with a Pac-12 championship and Rose Bowl win, and a Cotton Bowl appearance.
The high-water mark with Riley: 11 wins in 2021, and a loss to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl.
Southern California is a private school, and details of Riley’s reported $110 million deal from 2021 haven’t been publicly released. But every coaching contract has a clause in it, specifically outlining firing for cause if the program is placed on NCAA probation.
A sports agent familiar with college coaching contracts who spoke to USA TODAY Sports on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, said USC would’ve been foolish to not include the specific NCAA clause. Without it, Riley would be free to flout NCAA rules without repercussion.
This wouldn’t be the first time a university used NCAA violations to get out from under a contract. Tennessee in 2020 all but invited the NCAA to investigate its program under former coach Jeremy Pruitt, who was accused of giving recruits cash in paper bags. Among other things.
Tennessee didn’t want to pay Pruitt $12 million in walkaway money (a pittance by today’s standards), and used the NCAA clause in his contract to fire him for cause ― then accepted an $8 million fine,
Paying the NCAA $8 million in one thing. Paying a coach $12 million to not coach is where you draw the line.
This brings us back to Riley, who was one win from the College Football Playoff in Year 1, dipped to eight wins in Year 2 despite having the best player in college football (Caleb Williams), and this season has lost five of seven league games in USC’s first season in the Big Ten.
Southern California didn’t suspend Riley after the NCAA violations. But that doesn’t mean the Trojans can’t fire Riley if another disappointing season ends badly.
Especially now that it has a get out of jail free card.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.