Arnold Palmer Invitational odds: Predictions, sleepers, how to watch

Nearly all of the PGA Tour’s best golfers reconvene this week for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando, Florida, part of a two-week stretch on the golf calendar along with The PLAYERS Championship that sets the stage for April’s Masters. Though Tiger Woods is not expected to make his 2025 season debut beginning Thursday at Bay Hill Golf Course, 47 of the top 50 in the world golf rankings are committed to be there.

This will be the first time since The Tour Championship last August in which Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele will be in same field, with Schauffele expected to play in a PGA Tour event for the first time since The Sentry in January due to a rib injury. Scheffler is the tournament’s defending champion and seeking a third win at the API in four years. He’s also the favorite heading into Thursday’s first-round action, according to BetMGM.

Here are the latest odds, predictions and sleeper picks for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitations, as well as how to watch this week’s PGA Tour signature event in honor of one of golf’s greats:

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 odds

Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2025, according to BetMGM, with Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas also among the top five for oddsmakers in terms of chances to win this week’s PGA Tour signature event. Scheffler also won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2023 and 2024.

Odds as of Wednesday, March 3

Favorites

Scottie Scheffler (+350)
Rory McIlroy (+850)
Ludvig Aberg (+1400)
Collin Morikawa (+2000)
Justin Thomas (+2000)
Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
Xander Schauffele (+2200)
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)
Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)

Sleepers

Picks by USA Today Sportsbook Wire

Will Zalatoris (+4000): ‘Zalatoris finished fourth at this event last year and has made the cut in all four starts at Bay Hill – including a 10th-place finish in 2021. He’s a pure ball striker and looks healthy again this year, coming in 26th or better in three of four starts in 2025.’
Keegan Bradley (+5500): ‘Since 2016, he’s made the cut every year and finished 10th or 11th in three-straight years from 2021-23. A signature win leading up to the Ryder Cup would greatly help his chances of making the team as a playing captain.’
Matt Fitzpatrick (+6600): ‘Fitzpatrick has not played well so far this season, but he’s had some close calls at this event in the past. Since 2016, he’s made the cut in eight of nine attempts, with six top-14 finishes in that span. This could be the week he gets things dialed in before the schedule really ramps up leading into major season.’
Akshay Bhatia (+6600): ‘Bhatia has never played the Arnold Palmer Invitational before, but he’s finished T-32 or better in all 5 starts this season, including T-9 showings in each of his last 2 starts at the Genesis and Mexico Open. It’s a loaded field but it should surprise no one if Bhatia is the guy at the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.’
Harris English (+8000): ‘English’s odds are quite long this week despite … winning once already this year and finishing second here in 2023. He came in 21st last year and has four-straight top-26 finishes at Bay Hill since 2020.’

2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions

The Athletic: Scottie Scheffler wins again

‘He has dominated here since his first start in 2020. He gained over five strokes off the tee in each of the last two years while gaining over 1.2 strokes around the green in all four trips.’

NBCSports.com: Rory McIlroy

‘Few players have had as much success and gained as many strokes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational as has McIlroy. He won this event in 2018, and his skill set is perfect for this course. While Bay Hill rewards accurate drivers, it also adds a layer of extra benefits to those who are long off the tee. There’s no disguising it — this course is a shot-maker’s course, and that is precisely what McIlroy is.’

Sports Illustrated: Multiple Justin Thomas picks, but experts split

Two of Sports Illustrated’s six golf analysts tabbed Justin Thomas to win the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. The other four picks were split among Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Tommy Fleetwood.

Brian Kirchner writes: ‘Coming off a ninth-place finish at the Genesis, where he gained a staggering 8 strokes on approach, there is no doubt he’s hitting the ball well right now. Although it’s not a perfect course fit on paper for JT, he’s played better than expected. He had a 12th-place finish at Bay Hill last year, where he gained in all major categories, when he was in much worse form.’

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025: TV, streaming, how to watch PGA Tour signature event

Action at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational will be televised by both the Golf Channel and NBC, beginning with afternoon coverage of Thursday’s first round. You can stream all four rounds of the tournament via the NBC Sports app, ESPN+ or Fubo, which offers a free trial. The NBC broadcast of the third and fourth rounds can also be streamed on Peacock this weekend.

Thursday, March 6

First round

7:30 a.m.-6 p.m. ET, ESPN+
2-6 p.m. ET, Golf Channel
2-6 p.m. ET, NBC Sports app

Friday, March 7

Second round

7:30 a.m.-6 p.m. ET, ESPN+
2-6 p.m. ET, Golf Channel
2-6 p.m. ET, NBC Sports app

Saturday, March 8

Third round

8 a.m.-6 p.m. ET, ESPN+
12:30-2:30 p.m. ET, Golf Channel
12:30-6 p.m. ET, NBC Sports app
2:30-6 p.m. ET, NBC and Peacock

Sunday, March 9

Final round