Eastern European countries are eyeing an exit of the Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel landmines so they can place lethal underground bombs along their border to prevent Russia from invading, Fox News Digital has learned.
Poland is expected to withdraw from the treaty, together with Lithuania and Estonia, multiple eastern European officials predicted. Latvia and Finland are considering the idea as well.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk asked the Ministry of Defense to initiate withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention ‘and possibly the Dublin Convention,’ referring to both the treaty governing anti-personnel landmines and the use of cluster munitions.
Pressure among the Baltic States, together with Poland and Finland, has swelled in recent months to stop adhering to the Canada-brokered treaty as a way to bolster defenses at a time when the U.S. has said it will not offer Ukraine security guarantees to prevent Russian President Vladimir Putin from once again invading and pushing west.
Lithuania pulled out of the treaty banning the use of cluster munitions recently, making it the first European Union nation to pull out of an international arms treaty. It’s now expected to pull out of Ottawa as well.
Russia and Ukraine both use cluster munitions and anti-personnel landmines in the current war.
Lithuanian National Security Committee Chairman Giedrimas Jeglinskas said that the ‘threat assessment has changed dramatically’ since his nation joined the convention in 2003. Jeglinskas, who has led the charge to leave the treaty in Lithuania, said the nation had wanted to withdraw from the treaty for a long time, given it shares a border with Russian vassal state Belarus, but needed the agreement from other border nations, so Russia could not just ‘go around’ Belarus and through Poland or Latvia.
‘We hold that Latvians and Estonians will move in the same direction,’ he said.
Canada urged Eastern European states to remain in the treaty, but laid blame on Russia for their moves to withdraw.
‘Support for the convention and universal adherence remain a priority for Canada,’ Global Affairs office spokesperson Brittany Fletcher told Fox News Digital.
‘These debates are taking place as a result of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s actions in the region are forcing states to act out of necessity, not by choice,’ the office said. ‘While we understand the need to consider all options … such measures need to be balanced with the long-term impacts, including impacts on civilians.’
Finland, meanwhile, has asked for ‘a couple weeks more’ to come to its own decision, according to the chairman.
Estonia’s defense ministry said that its ‘military assessment has not changed’ on the treaty. ‘At the same time, this is a wider political question, on which a decision has not been made in Estonia,’ according to a defense ministry official.
Latvia, meanwhile, has to consider the 1,700 Canadian troops stationed within its borders as part of the withdrawal.
Finland began a report to assess the need and deterrent effect of anti-personnel land mines within its borders, which will be finalized in the spring and the Ministry of Defense will then make a recommendation to parliament on whether to leave, according to Finnish press counselor Riikka Hietajärvi.
Two other European officials said behind the scenes Finnish, Estonian and Latvian officials expressed an openness to the idea of leaving the treaty.
For Lithuania to withdraw, the president needs to notify his defense council and then propose the withdrawal to parliament, where it needs a 60% vote.
Jeglinskas said he expects such a vote would pass without widespread dissent. ‘There might be some lone voices expressing their concern, but it should pass without issue.’
As of now, 164 nations are party to the agreement. No EU country has ever left the Ottawa Treaty.
The United Nations holds that the ‘number of casualties has sharply declined’ since the agreement and 40 million stockpiled mines have been destroyed.
Tusk acknowledged that this is ‘not a pleasant’ decision but insisted that Poland must consider its current security needs. ‘Anything that can strengthen Poland’s defense will be implemented. We will use all available options,’ he stated.
The U.S. is not party to the treaty and in November the Biden administration began supplying Ukraine with anti-personnel mines.
Critics of landmines argue that they are indiscriminate and can instantly kill and maim civilians who step into the wrong area.
‘No matter what decision we make – and I think this decision is very, very clearly going towards withdrawal – it’s still a difficult decision,’ said Jeglinskas. ‘Just the situation … it just does not allow us the privilege to remain part of this coalition on anti-personnel mines, and it’s with a heavy heart, I would say that, that’s unfortunate, but that’s just the military reality.’
The Russian military has the supreme edge against any of its border states on their own, necessitating lethal deterrence like land mines, according to Hudson defense analyst Can Kasapoğlu.
‘The Russian military has the upper hand over the Polish armed forces, and it has a gigantic, gigantic upper hand over the entire Baltic nations. So for these nations to keep being a part of the Ottawa treaty and and ditching the landmines, for the sake of some international image, it doesn’t make sense.’
The anti-personnel mines would need to be combined with anti-tank mines and artillery and drones stationed along the border to effectively deter an enemy. ‘It forms a kill box that the Russians can’t evade.’
He said that such mines have advanced to self-destruct after a set period of time so that the fallout does not last for generations like in wars past.
The new movement comes as Europe has moved at a rapid-fire pace to account to take charge of its own defense since President Donald Trump took office and brought along his critiques of Europe and the NATO alliance.
The European Union last week proposed an $841 billion plan to ‘rearm Europe,’ and defense leaders met in Paris this week to discuss how to offer Ukraine security guarantees after the war.
Ukraine has agreed to the U.S.-brokered terms of a 30-day ceasefire, but Russia has said it is still reviewing the details. Overnight, Russia struck the Black Sea port of Odesa with missiles, killing four and damaging a grain vessel.