The quest for college basketball history went south in Hawaii.
Back in November, Connecticut lost three times in as many games at the high-profile Maui Invitational — to Memphis, Colorado and Dayton — in a sneak peek at an adversity-filled season that has tested and taxed the two-time defending national champions.
“This year, our confidence got rattled so early in Maui, you know, I’ve had to build this team up,” coach Dan Hurley said in February.
Maybe the daunting responsibility of replacing one of the best teams of the expanded NCAA men’s tournament era has been too much for the Huskies to overcome. Maybe the pressure of becoming the first three-time champions since John Wooden’s UCLA in the 1970s has pulled and pulled on Hurley and the Huskies to the point where, like an overstretched rubber band, they’re unable to regain the form that made them an unstoppable juggernaut.
Time is running out to turn things around: UConn enters Thursday’s quarterfinals of the Big East tournament against Villanova with a shrinking runway until March Madness, and it’s becoming harder to envision how the Huskies flip the switch in time to make history — or if that switch exists at all for a young team with flaws that have bubbled to the surface throughout the regular season.
“I realized that I couldn’t coach this team as hard as I’ve coached some of my other teams,” Hurley said. “I don’t think any of us were prepared for the level of scrutiny throughout the year that’s come with the success we’ve had the last two years. I think that’s been heavy for all of us.”
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Of the factors that have influenced this up-and-down year, none looms larger than the exodus of talent that left campus after last season.
All-America center Donovan Clingan and guard Stephon Castle declared for the NBA draft. Senior guards Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer graduated. That left the Huskies with just one returning starter, junior forward Alex Karaban, and another two players who averaged more than nine minutes per game in backup center Samson Johnson and backup guard Solo Ball.
With the added burden of being the leader, Karaban’s game has plateaued — he’s shooting worse from the field overall, from deep and from the line — while Ball has taken on a much bigger role, scoring a team-high 14.8 points per game. Five-star freshman forward Liam McNeeley is averaging 14.7 points per game but has battled injuries and shot just 39.5% from the field.
But a narrower look at the Huskies’ season reveals several inherent flaws: poor point guard play, an inability to control turnovers, a measurably weaker defense, untrustworthy depth and an absence of the killer instinct that came to define the past two national champions.
“We’ve got too many flaws,” Hurley said after last month’s 89-75 loss to St. John’s at Madison Square Garden. “Obviously, our quality is way off from what it’s been for a variety of reasons.”
The team’s weak production at point guard is seen most clearly in the two losses to the Red Storm, who twice harassed the Huskies into submission to quickly wrestle away control of the Big East in coach Rick Pitino’s second season.
A fifth-year senior who played in 76 games the past two years, Hassan Diarra has struggled in the transition to the starting lineup due in some part to a lingering knee injury that has worsened during conference play. With no backup option — freshman Ahmad Nowell has dealt with an ankle injury and Saint Mary’s transfer Aidan Mahaney has not lived up to expectations — Hurley has continued to lean on Diarra, who has scored in double figures just three times and averaged almost three turnovers per game since the beginning of February.
Unreliable point guard play is the primary culprit for a drastic drop in per-possession effectiveness. Last year’s team ranked 13th in the country in turnovers per game and 120th in turnover margin; this year’s squad has dropped to 147th nationally in turnovers and 259th in turnover margin.
These giveaways have weakened the Huskies’ defense, which has fallen to 68th in Division I in points allowed per game despite leading the country in blocks per game. While Clingan’s both-ends impact has been impossible to replace, Hurley has cobbled together some frontcourt value from Johnson and Michigan transfer Tarris Reed Jr., one of four players averaging in double figures in scoring.
“For us this year, with our defense, we can’t take everything away,” he said.
With no primary ballhandler in charge, the offense consistently gets bogged down in half-court sets and is unable to capitalize on fastbreak opportunities. UConn ranks 203rd nationally and sixth in the Big East with just 9.2 fastbreak points per game.
These issues have combined to form a team that has hiccupped through the regular season with fits and starts, undercutting extended stretches of solid-to-strong play with headscratching losses in Maui and during conference play to Villanova and Seton Hall.
“For this year, most of our losses have been just excruciating losses,” said Hurley.
The possibility that UConn regains last year’s form always seems within its grasp, even if this continued faith in the Huskies’ potential has much more to do with the past than the present. UConn hasn’t lost a tournament game in two years; last year’s team cut down the nets at the end of maybe the most dominant postseason run since expansion four decades ago. This is clearly a very different team.
Still, the Huskies won eight games in a row coming out of the Maui trip, including wins against potential tournament teams in Baylor, Texas, Gonzaga and Xavier. Overall, they have five Quad 1 wins, tied for the most in the Big East. And UConn is currently on a four-game win streak, highlighted by defeat of Marquette, to enter the Big East tournament at 22-9 overall, 14-6 in conference, and in range of a No. 6 seed in the NCAA field with a run to Saturday’s championship game.
Could the Huskies get hot at the right time and rekindle a run toward an historic three-peat?
“It’s probably the best we’ve felt all year,” Hurley said after an 81-50 rout of Seton Hall to end the regular season. “And it’s March, and UConn’s got a great history in March, that’s part of our confidence.”