The key to picking teams in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament is to look for underdogs or dark horses that can exploit the draw and avoid upsets. The top teams in the country primarily come from two conferences, but many more teams have the talent to make a run at the championship.
Last year, North Carolina State went 17–14 and was a No. 10 seed in the ACC tournament but ran the table before earning a No. 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolfpack then blitzed through the South Region to reach the Final Four. Clemson was the only other team seeded above the No. 5 line to make it to at least the Regional Final.
Who could be the surprise team this year? Here are four teams that could make a run at the championship:
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Connecticut
It’s odd that the two-time defending national champions can be considered an underdog or dark horse, but this is the hand they have been dealt. The Huskies have championship mettle. You need to win six games and they know how to do it, but with their draw in the West Region it might be tough sledding making it to the second weekend.
UC San Diego
UC San Diego is only in its fifth season at the Division I level, but it punched its ticket by winning the Big West Conference. Led by coach Eric Olen, the Tritons do things that don’t get them beat; they don’t turn the ball over, a testament to point guard Hayden Gray’s skillful handling of the ball. They force turnovers and are efficient at shooting from long distance, making nearly 11 3-pointers a game. Winners of 15 games in a row, UC San Diego beat teams by an average of 18.1 points per game, second only to Duke (20.8). It faces a tough first opponent in Big Ten tournament champion Michigan.
Utah State
The Aggies have two outstanding guards, Mason Falslev and Ian Martinez, and the teams that defend those two must keep their scoring to a minimum. If there is one word to describe this team, especially on the offensive end, it is efficient, ranking 10th in the NCAA in that category. The defensive end is where the Aggies might run into trouble, but make no mistake about it: Utah State can go on a run and make some noise.
Utah State takes on UCLA in the first round.
Texas A&M
The Aggies have hit a bit of a skid lately, culminating in their second-round exit in double overtime to Texas in the SEC tournament. The question for the NCAA Tournament is: Which A&M team will show up?
The one that beat Auburn earlier this month? Or the one that lost four in a row before upsetting the Tigers, eliminating any talk of a possible No. 2 or No. 3 seed? First-time All-SEC performers Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps lead A&M, but if those two can’t get going it can rely on an outstanding bench, which scores more than a third of its points each game.