With collegiate conference play entering the home stretch and high school playoffs underway or shortly commencing in most states, the window has narrowed for top prospects aiming to improve their position for July’s Major League Baseball draft.
This spring season has largely confirmed the feelings of evaluators on the large pool of players aiming to get chosen in the first round, although there has been significant movement within that group. Once again, this draft feels light on potential franchise players but is plenty deep on difference makers – and features a nearly surefire first-round troika from what could be considered the greatest high school team of all time.
With roughly a month of ball remaining for the majority of players and nearly two months out from the July 13 selection party in Atlanta, USA TODAY Sports throws some darts and takes aim at a mock draft for the first round:
1. Washington Nationals: Ethan Holliday, INF, Stillwater (Okla.) HS
It will be a fascinating home stretch for Holliday, the Nationals and a handful of pitchers bullying their way to the top of draft boards. Washington GM Mike Rizzo’s pitching-first chops will be challenged by the everyday excellence Holliday – bigger and with more projectable power than 2022 1/1 and older brother Jackson – can provide.
2. Los Angeles Angels: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
The Angels’ ever-dire need for pitching and GM Perry Minasian’s penchant for quick-to-the-majors guys intersects with Arnold, a 6-foot-1 lefty who has dominated ACC competition with a WHIP of less than 1.00 and just three homers allowed in 55 innings. Not your prototypical top five power pitcher, but a lefty who can pitch off his fastball and has the profile of a rotation anchor.
3. Seattle Mariners: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
This might already be too far for monster prep right-hander Seth Hernandez to fall, but the Mariners have made their bones drafting and promptly developing college pitchers. This time, they roll with Arquette, a 6-foot-5 shortstop with considerable power (16 homers, 1.173 OPS) and discipline. Recently inspired an opponent to play a four-man outfield against him.
4. Colorado Rockies: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS
Will Hernandez make history and become the first prep right-hander chosen No. 1 overall? It seems unlikely, but the Vanderbilt commit couldn’t have done much more to balloon his stock – and ensure he’s the first of the Corona lads to come off the board. Hernandez gave up one earned run in 42 ⅓ innings, struck out 88, and walked just three. The Rockies will wager that his 98 mph fastball and excellent changeup can tame Coors Field.
5. St. Louis Cardinals: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS
Make it back-to-back Panthers as the Cardinals add another impact middle infielder after stealing J.J. Wetherholt with the seventh overall pick last year. Carlson has enviable tools – he hits the mid-90s with his fastball on the mound – and banged out 30 hits this season, 11 going for extra bases. Signed with Tennessee but not likely to get to Knoxville.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS
7. Miami Marlins: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset (Ore.) HS
The 2024 draft lasted eight picks before a high schooler was selected, an unprecedented run of collegians. This year, the teenagers take the power back. Schoolcraft just turned 18 last month and at 6-8, can touch 97 mph on his fastball. He’s an excellent two-way player but his projectability on the mound is obvious and the Marlins swing big here.
8. Toronto Blue Jays: Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M
LaViolette started the year as 1A to Holliday, but a less than overwhelming SEC campaign has dampened the ceiling a bit. He’s hitting .276 with 48 strikeouts in 47 games – a 21.4% K rate – but has smacked 15 homers and reached base at a .437 clip. That’s all down from a sophomore year where he hit 29 homers, with six multi-homer games, and posted a .449 OBP. But the overall track record for the 6-foot-6 lefty slugger.
9. Cincinnati Reds: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
The parade of SEC talent continues. Doyle is second in the nation with 15.3 strikeouts per nine innings, thanks to an “invisiball” four-seamer that has helped him punch out 115 in 67 ⅔ innings. The former Coastal Carolina and Ole Miss hurler will need to refine his secondary offerings at the next level, but his fastball is a rare weapon, especially coming from the left hand.
10. Chicago White Sox: Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Just a tick behind Doyle statistically – he’s fourth in the nation with 14.5 strikeouts per nine – and could be joined at the hip with his SEC rival on draft day. Anderson is a draft-eligible sophomore – he turns 21 in July – whose polished repertoire could make him a fast mover, giving Chicago a solid pitching foundation on the heels of 2024 first-rounder Hagen Smith.
11. Athletics: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Make it back-to-back first-round Demon Deacons for the Athletics and Houston could join slugger Nick Kurtz (No. 4 overall in 2024) in Yolo County well before the club’s decampment to Las Vegas. Houston is terrific defensively and has grown stronger with the bat each season, finally pairing elite contact skills with some slug. A middle-infield combo of Houston and Rookie of the Year candidate Jacob Wilson is worth dreaming on.
12. Texas Rangers: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
He breaks up the parade of lefties with a fastball that touches 98 mph and sets the stage for his 100 punchouts in 72 innings this season. A 0.89 WHIP – seventh in the nation – against SEC hitters is startling.
13. San Francisco Giants: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek (Ga.) HS
Pierce, a Georgia commit, fits the profile of the new Giants regime – toolsy but also excelling at attention to detail and the so-called little things. He’s gradually added more slug to his game, although he’s slightly old – turning 19 in August – for his graduating class.
14. Tampa Bay Rays: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS
Perhaps the Rays can draft twin brother Jacob, as well, to keep both away from Mississippi State. Parker brings a physical presence to the middle infield and, if Jacob is any indication, could blossom into further power as he ages.
15. Boston Red Sox: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson (Texas) HS
His 5-9, 175-pound frame produces an excellent hitting profile, both from a bat-to-ball and surprising pop standpoint. Will figure in the middle of the diamond somewhere professionally.
16. Minnesota Twins: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Like LaViolette, Bremner was in the early spring convo as a top four pick but his first year as a full-time starter has been uneven, with a 4.08 ERA in 12 starts for the Big West Conference school. Still, with a fastball that touches the upper 90s, he’s a moldable talent in the proper pitching program.
17. Chicago Cubs: Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
He’s looking remarkably comfortable in his second season in the SEC, ranking second with 17 home runs, fifth with a 1.182 OPS and fourth in average (.376). At 6-foot-2, 200 pounds, he should stick on shortstop and fits the Cubs’ draft pattern of selecting polished collegians.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville (Ala.) HS
Remarkably fast and incredibly young, Hall reclassified for 2025, his 5-foot-11, 165-pound frame offering plenty of room to grow, given he’ll stil be 17 on draft day. Hall has excellent bat-to-ball skills, and could rise higher in the first round if evaluators trust those skills will translate from three years of Alabama prep ball to the professional ranks.
19. Baltimore Orioles: Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest
The sky is blue, rain is wet, an ACC or SEC lefty-swinging outfielder is headed to Baltimore. Enter Conrad. He underwent season-ending shoulder surgery after an outfield dive yet has been coming on strongly from his sophomore year at Marist to the Cape Cod League to a seven-homer, .372 21-game burst before he got hurt.
20. Milwaukee Brewers: Dean Curley, INF, Tennessee
Will need a little more polish, as the Volunteers moved him from shortstop to third base in his second year in Knoxville. But he has excellent strike zone control and at 6-4, the frame to add more power to an offensive profile that’s produced 11 homers and a .420 OBP.
21. Houston Astros: Sean Gamble, INF-OF, IMG (Fla.) Academy
An extremely versatile player with a strong baseball IQ, Gamble could eventually man one of three infield spots or take his skill set to center field. At 6-1 and 190 pounds, the Vanderbilt signee and Iowa native should add strength and power.
22. Atlanta Braves: Jack Bauer, LHP, Lincoln-Way East (Ill.) HS
Atlanta loves going the pitching route and Bauer gives them plenty to work with: His fastball topped out beyond 100 mph in this, his senior year. Though perhaps it’s destiny he’s chosen at … 24.
23. Kansas City Royals: Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson
His game fits snugly into Kauffman Stadium, with gap-to-gap power, superior defensive ability and excellent speed; he’s 24-of-29 on steals this year and sports a .462 OBP.
24. Detroit Tigers: Xavier Neyens, INF, Mount Vernon (Wash.) HS
A 6-foot-4 frame that already offers elite power from the left side, and athleticism that produced 24 stolen bases in his team’s first 18 games. Oh, Neyens won’t be a speed merchant on the pro level, but if the team drafting him can cut down on his swing-and-miss, it should unlock significant thump from his bat.
25. San Diego Padres: Quentin Young, 3B/OF, Oaks Christian (Calif.) HS
The nephew of Dmitri and Delmon might be a reach here, but Young, an LSU commit, offers significant raw power and an outstanding arm. Perhaps a longer-term project but with significant upside.
26. Philadelphia Phillies: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
The best catcher available falls here, though Stevenson’s throwing ability is his biggest carrying tool at the moment. Can join Cal Raleigh, Patrick Bailey and Ryan Jeffers as big league backstops grown in the Tar Heel State.
27. Cleveland Guardians: Max Belyeu, OF, Texas
A thumb fracture ended his regular season after 22 games, but Belyeu was putting together a strong junior season – hitting .358 with a 1.107 OPS when he went down at the end of March. But teams certainly saw enough of his hit tool – he produced 18 homers a year ago – and a return in the postseason for the No. 1 team in the land could produce some helium prior to draft day.
28. Kansas City Royals*: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama
With two picks in six slots, the Royals can roll the dice on some volatility and Quick fills that bill. At 6-6, 255, he offers a massive frame to build upon but also not much of a track record after undergoing Tommy John surgery early in 2024. His results after a relatively short turnaround are fine, averaging more than a strikeout an inning in 11 starts this season.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks**: INF Brady Ebel, Corona (Calif.) HS
The last of the Corona kids will hit the 10 eastbound to Phoenix. Ebel, son of Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel, has the baseball instincts to match the lineage and a 6-3, 190-pound frame that will likely translate to a future at the hot corner.
30. Baltimore Orioles**: OF Brendan Summerhill, Arizona
More of a “flat-out hit” kind of guy, Summerhill has just 11 homers in 84 games the past two seasons, yet is slashing .414/.504/.697 this year. His ability to play all three outfield positions and the promise of developing power are a nice profile.
31. Baltimore Orioles**: INF Gavin Kilen, Tennessee
A hamstring injury put him out of sight, though he’s never too far out of mind for evaluators. A former shortstop who profiles better defensively at second base, Kilen has nearly as many home runs (11) as strikeouts (14) in 162 plate appearances this season.
32. Milwaukee Brewers**: Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak (Calif.) HS
A Texas commit whose 6-3, 200-pound frame portends potentially greater power down the road, Fien has decent athleticism and offers defensive versatility at the next level.
*- Prospect promotion incentive pick
**-Free agent compensation pick
Note: The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees each received a 10-pick penalty on their first picks for exceeding the second threshold of the Competitive Balance Tax, meaning their first picks will occur in Competitive Balance Round A.
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