As had long been expected, Cooper Flagg’s name was called with the first pick of the NBA draft Wednesday night. But despite filling his trophy case, including national player of the year honors, during his sublime freshman (and only) season at Duke University – not to mention a reputation burnished by holding his own against Team USA’s superstars prior to last year’s Paris Olympics – further expectations commensurate with Flagg’s draft position will only continue to expand.
His hype train quickly gained steam in high school, where he led the Montverde Academy Eagles to 34-0 record and a national championship as a senior, before driving the Blue Devils to this year’s Final Four. Of course, none of that guarantees Flagg will be an NBA legend or even revitalize the Dallas Mavericks, who, one year removed from losing in the NBA Finals, are apparently hoping he can (on some level) fill the Luka Dončić-sized hole in their lineup.
But pro sports rarely work that tidily. For every LeBron James, there’s a Kwame Brown and maybe even an Andrea Bargnani or Ben Simmons. For every Peyton Manning, there’s a Jeff George. The spotlight is simply harsher when it comes to top picks. Highly regarded Bears quarterback Caleb Williams had a decent rookie season in 2024 despite the regrettable circumstances around him. Yet his career is already being (unfairly?) measured against the man chosen right after him, Washington Commanders counterpart Jayden Daniels, who may have had the greatest NFL season ever by a rookie QB.
Welcome to the Association, Coop. To illustrate the daunting climb ahead of you, I’m going to rank this century’s No. 1 picks in the NFL – I’m old enough to have covered LeBron and Brown when they were NBA newbies, but football is my area of (alleged) expertise – from best to worst. (This year’s top selection, Cam Ward of the Tennessee Titans, gets a one-year exemption, for obvious reasons.)
1. QB Eli Manning, San Diego Chargers (2004)
Tabbed by the Bolts against his family’s will, he was traded to the New York Giants within an hour of being picked in a megadeal involving Philip Rivers. Both passers will likely find their way to the Hall of Fame eventually, though Manning was not elected in 2025, his first year of eligibility. But he does own a pair of Super Bowl MVP trophies after vanquishing Tom Brady’s New England Patriots in style two times over. Maybe Eli wasn’t as good individually as older brother Peyton, the No. 1 pick in 1998 and a five-time league MVP, but that doesn’t detract from the exceptional performer and ambassador he was for the Giants over 16 seasons.
2. QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (2009)
A late-career surge with the Rams, which included a Super Bowl win to cap the 2021 season, will probably certify Stafford’s Canton credentials. But he deserves more credit than he probably gets for his often-scintillating play on some Lions teams that were overly reliant on him and WR Calvin Johnson for seven years. And Stafford’s relative excellence in Motown hardly subsided in the five seasons following Megatron’s retirement after the 2015 campaign.
3. DE Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns (2017)
From a personal perspective – four-time All-Pro, 2023 Defensive Player of the Year, 102½ sacks in 117 NFL games – he’s probably already done enough to gain entry into the Hall. In terms of team success, the Browns only have one playoff win since Garrett arrived – not that he’s remotely to blame.
4. QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (2020)
Admittedly, this is something of a projection for a guy who’s played the equivalent of four full seasons when injuries are factored in. But Burrow has already carried Cincy to a Super Bowl – a huge feather in his cap – and a pair of appearances in the AFC championship game. He seems to be an MVP-in-waiting, and perhaps that comes this season if he’s able to – forced to? – overcome a deficient Cincinnati D. After leading the league with 4,913 yards and 43 touchdowns through the air in 2024, many league observers thought Burrow deserved quite a bit of MVP consideration despite the Bengals’ failure as a team.
5. QB Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (2016)
Despite starting Super Bowl 53, he was part of the package the Rams gave up for Stafford in 2021 – and his relocation to Detroit was widely viewed as something of a salary dump at the time. But give Goff, a two-time Pro Bowler in LA, copious credit – he’s become an even better quarterback with the Lions, throwing for at least 4,400 yards each of the past three seasons and leading the franchise to a level success (including successive division titles) it had not previously experienced during the Super Bowl era (since 1966).
6. QB Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (2011)
During his first five seasons, the super-sized dual threat lived up to his Superman persona – faster than a speeding linebacker, more powerful than a … linebacker – peaking in 2015 with league MVP honors while the Panthers won the NFC. But Newton was notably terrible in Super Bowl 50 and experienced a steady descent afterward, dogged by injuries and inconsistency.
7. QB Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (2012)
Targeted as the virtually irreplaceable Peyton Manning’s successor, Luck seemed up to the unenviable task … when he was healthy enough to play. He led the Colts to a 33-15 record and a trio of playoff appearances during his first three seasons, which culminated with a loss in the 2014 AFC championship game. But, like Newton, Luck was a big man who was also a big target when he often resorted to a devil-may-care playing style. He only posted 38 times over his final four seasons – he was named Comeback Player of the Year in 2018, when he passed for 39 TDs and nearly 4,600 yards – and shockingly retired during the 2019 preseason, unable to further shoulder the pain and expectations of his job. The Colts have yet to recover.
NFL LOTTERY? Three reasons league likely won’t ever adopt NBA draft model
8. QB Michael Vick, Atlanta Falcons (2001)
While it probably wouldn’t be accurate to say he’s the paradigm of the dual-threat quarterbacks who are becoming the rule rather than the exception in the modern NFL – I’m giving that credit to Randall Cunningham – Vick certainly inspired a legion of uber-athletic passers who followed him. Had he worked harder as a younger player rather than relying on his gifts – just ask Vick – remained clear of dogfighting and the jail time it earned him and avoided injuries later in his career, he might have wound up a champion and Hall of Famer. Regardless – legend.
9. QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals (2003)
For a brief moment, it appeared he might be the guy to do what Burrow seems to be managing and lead the Bengals out of the wilderness. But Palmer tore up his knee on the first pass of his playoff debut – a 66-yard completion – and Cincinnati retreated into irrelevance. Fed up with the organization in later years, Palmer was traded to another backwater in 2011, joining the Raiders for 25 forgettable games. He eventually enjoyed a renaissance with the Cardinals and nearly took them to the Super Bowl.
10. QB Baker Mayfield, Browns (2018)
He materialized as Cleveland’s choice at the 11th hour – a decision he largely vindicated. However the Browns’ decision to dump Mayfield for Deshaun Watson in 2022 will forever be viewed as an unequivocal disaster. But it may have also catalyzed Mayfield into becoming the player he is now – a two-time Pro Bowler who’s thrown for 69 TDs and nearly 9,000 yards in two years with the Buccaneers. He has plenty of runway ahead to move much further up this list.
11. DE Mario Williams, Houston Texans (2006)
He was the surprising choice over electric USC RB Reggie Bush. But Williams justified his very unpopular selection with the locals, compiling nearly 100 sacks in 11 NFL seasons. A four-time Pro Bowler, most of his career was spent in virtual anonymity with bad teams in Houston and Buffalo. Williams never started a playoff game.
12. QB Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers (2005)
He spent his career as NFL hurdler – overcoming the transition from Urban Meyer’s college offense at Utah to a pro scheme; getting chosen (instead of Aaron Rodgers) by a bad Niners squad; losing his job to Colin Kaepernick after suffering a concussion in 2012; losing his job to Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City in 2018; and suffering a gruesome leg injury late in his career at Washington, but one he miraculously came back from. Still, Smith, a three-time Pro Bowler, was a good player, outstanding teammate and great interview who made the most of his 16-year career (though two seasons were wiped out by injuries).
13. LT Jake Long, Miami Dolphins (2008)
He was a Pro Bowler and dominant player in each of his first four seasons before injuries largely short-circuited the balance of his nine-year career. The Fins thought enough of Long to choose him instead of future league MVP Matt Ryan.
14. LT Eric Fisher, Kansas City Chiefs (2013)
His draft wasn’t exactly star-studded, and Fisher emerged as something of a surprise choice at the top of it. Nevertheless, he was a solid player over the course of a decade, earned a pair of Pro Bowl nods and is one of just three players – along with Eli Manning and Stafford – to play in and win a Super Bowl after being selected No. 1 overall in the 21st century.
15. QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (2019)
His potential hasn’t sufficiently matched the production to this point, though he was the Offensive Rookie of the Year and followed that up with Pro Bowl recognition in 2020 and ’21. But Murray ended the 2021 season with a poor performance in a wild-card loss to the Rams and has had to answer a lot of questions about his health and work ethic in recent years. Still, plenty of time yet for his career to truly take off, and the Cards seem to be perched for a breakout.
16. DE/OLB Jadeveon Clowney, Texans (2014)
A three-time Pro Bowler, the peripatetic pass rusher has been a very good player who maybe hasn’t been given due credit for his all-around game given edge players are so often judged by sacks − and Clowney has never even had 10 in a single season. Yet it is probably fair to say that he’s never lived up to his highlight-reel promise while at the University of South Carolina.
17. QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (2021)
Projected as a generational prospect years before the Jags secured the opportunity to take him, Lawrence has fallen well short of fulfilling that hype … so far. However, the Meyer debacle during his rookie year and last year’s injury weren’t Lawrence’s fault. And he did flash during the 2022 playoffs while leading Jacksonville to the divisional round. His story is far from written, and a new chapter awaits with the arrival of super-hyped rookie Travis Hunter to help the cause in Duval County.
18. OLB/DE Travon Walker, Jaguars (2022)
A dark horse who galloped to the top of the draft board, Walker has reached double-digit sacks each of the past two seasons. Yet, to date, he hasn’t been nearly the player Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson, who was drafted directly after him, is. But it’s still early in the process.
19. QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (2024)
Greatness is expected of him. But as a rookie, he was the victim of an insufficient organizational infrastructure, one that likely contributed to Williams reverting to some of his troubling college habits – and that meant too many sacks and fumbles. However the arrival of offensively brilliant coach Ben Johnson could spark exponential improvement in Williams’ performance.
20. QB Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2015)
Talented. Enigmatic. Beloved. Vexing. If you need a season to sum up Winston, it would be 2019, when he passed for more than 5,000 yards, 33 TDs and 30 INTs. If you need a game to sum up Winston, it occurred last season – when he threw for 497 yards and six TDs (four to his Cleveland teammates, two to Denver Broncos defenders) in a memorable Monday night loss. Usually a favorite in any locker room he graces, Winston has mostly been a backup since the Bucs replaced him with Brady after that 2019 campaign that nearly drove then-coach Bruce Arians crazy.
21. QB Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams (2010)
His injury history at Oklahoma was predictive of similar setbacks in the NFL. In a sense, his pro career peaked when he won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Bradford played for four teams, finishing with a career passer rating of 84.5 and a 34-48-1 record in 83 starts. He never appeared in the postseason.
22. QB Bryce Young, Panthers (2023)
He struggled massively as a rookie and was benched in the early stages of his sophomore season. But after getting back into the lineup, Young started to serve reminders of why Carolina loved him in the first place. Now enjoying continuity under second-year coach Dave Canales, Young has a chance to blossom in 2025.
23. QB David Carr, Texans (2002)
The first selection in club history, he’s probably best known for being sacked a single-season record 76 times during his rookie season. Carr was constantly running for his life in Houston, subsequently developed poor on-field habits and never settled in as the franchise’s foundation. He was a solid backup later in his career, winning a ring with the 2011 Giants.
24. DE Courtney Brown, Browns (2000)
Need a snapshot of why the Browns have almost always stunk? Brown was the No. 1 pick a year after Cleveland kicked off the 1999 draft by choosing QB Tim Couch. Both were waylaid by injuries and their enlistment by an expansion team. Brown wound up with 19 sacks in six NFL seasons – basically what T.J. Watt does for the archrival Pittsburgh Steelers in a year.
DRAFT BUSTS: *50 biggest of past 50 years
25. QB JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders (2007)
Woof. Russell, who began his career with a lengthy holdout, never approached the hype generated by his howitzer arm and legendary pro day. He lasted just three seasons, losing 18 of 25 starts and compiling an abysmal 65.2 passer rating, before laziness and weight gain washed him out of the league. Who could the Raiders have taken instead? Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Marshawn Lynch and Darrelle Revis all came off the board in the first half of Round 1 in ’07.