Keith Thurman, the former welterweight world champion boxer, earned unique insight into the welterweight matchup between Manny Pacquiao and Mario Barrios set for Saturday, July 19.
He did it by getting in the ring with both men.
Thurman went 12 rounds with Pacquiao in 2019 and suffered a split-decision loss. He went 12 rounds with Barrios in 2022 and won by unanimous decision.
But the only man who knocked him down was Pacquiao, who dropped Thurman in the first round. So, of course, that’s his pick to win the fight, right?
Well, not quite.
During an interview with USA TODAY Sports, Thurman addressed several scenarios as Pacquiao returns to the ring at 46 and the 30-year-old Barrios defends his WBC welterweight world title.
Pacquiao has won world titles at eight divisions. With a victory against Barrios Saturday in Las Vegas, he would become the first boxer to win a world title after being inducted into the International Boxing Hall of Fame.
“A big question mark is (whether) Pacquiao is still capable of such feats,’’ Thurman said.
Pacquiao vs. Barrios: Sizing up the fight
While Thurman said he doesn’t know how being 46 will affect Pacquiao in the ring, he seized on something else he said could make a big difference – size.
Barrios is 6-0, 6 ½ inches taller than the 5-5 ½ Pacquiao. In addition to being taller, Barrios is also the bigger fighter, according to Thurman.
“He’s got a really big size for a lightweight that moved up to welterweight because of his height and his reach,’’ Thurman said of Barrios. “And Manny Pacquiao is not one whose body size is an advantage at welterweight either.
“His major advantage throughout his career was his speed and his agility and a lot of the awkward angles that he is used throughout his career and really just his expertise.’’
In his last fight, Pacquiao lost to 5-9 Yordenis Ugas by unanimous decision after Ugas made good use of his reach advantage. Barrios is three inches taller than Ugas, and Thurman recommends a similar strategy for Barrios.
“Keeping your distance boxing on the outside the way that the Cubans normally do, not taking chances and Pac just having to try to make up that gap and work his legs after a layoff,’’ Thurman said. “His legs were not really there. That’s my concern (for Pacquiao).
“I think Manny Pacquiao would win via some kind of TKO. He would have to create a knockdown and then take the momentum of the knockdown and finish the fight. And the reason why I see this potentially happening is because Mario Barrios does not have the most sophisticated defense. That’s the only downplay. I think that’s the road to victory for Manny Pacquiao is the lack of the defense from Mario Barrios.’’
‘The major coin toss’
Against Barrios, Thurman said he had success when he threw a pump fake to work his way in.
“Then boom, boom, throw a few creative combos and it was easy to land on Mario Barrios,’’ he said. “And the one thing Manny Pac’s notorious for is creative combos. So that’s the major coin toss to me is Mario Barrios, his defense.’’
While Pacquiao might be slower, Thurman said he expects the aging boxer to be powerful.
“If he gets lucky, the power shot might be there, and with his craftiness and his knowledge of being in the ring, he might be able to do something,’’ Thurman said. “And if he does, it’s not a big surprise for me because that’s what world-class, elite, legendary fighters are potentially capable of.’’
For Barrios, Thurman said he does not recommend rolling with the punches.
“His team needs to have a game plan,’’ Thurman said. “I think it’s very essential at this level sometimes when you’re going up against just competition in general.
“Because Mario Barrios is the younger guy and because Ugas was able to keep (Pacquiao) on the outside…make him use those legs. Make him prove to us that those legs are still as explosive.’’
Pacquiao’s bulging calves once functioned like pistons. But the strength and stamina of Pacquiao’s legs remain an unknown, given he’s been out of the ring for almost four years.
“So make him use those legs,’’ Thurman said. “Don’t just stand there. Work behind your jab. Mario Barrios is a long fighter and one of the things that I complimented him post-fight was, out of all the champions I’ve ever faced, I was really surprised that Mario Barrios had one of the best jabs that I’ve ever been in the ring with.’’