Georgia will rebound from last weekend’s loss to Mississippi and make the College Football Playoff as an at-large pick.
Doing so would eliminate Tennessee and move the Rebels into the 12-team field. Georgia takes on the Volunteers this Saturday in one of the biggest regular-season games remaining in the Power Four.
While they would have the same record heading into the postseason, the Rebels would get the nod over the Volunteers by virtue of each team’s head-to-head result against Georgia.
Texas takes over as the favorite in the SEC even if the Longhorns have yet to post a win against a ranked opponent. The finale against Texas A&M is set to carry enormous weight in determining which teams play for the conference championship and a bye through the opening round of the playoff.
Miami stays atop the ACC despite losing to Georgia Tech. The Hurricanes are projected to meet SMU in the conference championship game, in what will very likely be a win-or-go-home matchup that drops the loser out of the playoff picture. Clemson could replace the Hurricanes should they lose again this month.
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College Football Playoff bracket projection
While almost anything can happen down the stretch of November, the breakdown of teams by Power Four conference is becoming a little easier to predict.
The Big 12 is set to send only one team. Brigham Young might be able to earn an at-large bid by going 12-0 and then losing the conference championship, but that defeat would come to a team with two or three losses and likely ruin the Cougars’ reputation.
The chances of the ACC sending two teams dropped significantly with Miami’s loss. The opportunity is still there should extensive chaos hit the top teams in the Big Ten and SEC. But the odds are that either the Hurricanes, Mustangs or Tigers are the league’s only representative.
One team apiece from the ACC and Big 12 along with Notre Dame and Boise State leaves eight playoff spots to be shared by the SEC and Big Ten.
As of now, the signs point to an even split: Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana from the Big Ten, and Texas, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi from the SEC.
Four teams to watch
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana has won six in a row since a competitive loss to Tulane in September, a stretch that includes wins against Wake Forest and three potential bowls teams out of the Sun Belt – Texas State, Coastal Carolina and Arkansas State. The Ragin’ Cajuns should head into the conference championship at 11-1 with a chance at finishing atop the heap in the Group of Five, though that would take some significant help in the American Athletic and Mountain West.
Colorado
Incredibly, the Buffaloes are on track to play for the Big 12 crown with wins to close out the year against Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State. A road trip to Lawrence should be Colorado’s toughest test given how the Jayhawks have played in recent weeks. Losses to Nebraska and Kansas State already doomed the Buffaloes’ chances of an at-large bid.
Clemson
Clemson’s at-large odds are nearly invisible, though there’s always a chance that a path opens with wins against Pittsburgh and South Carolina along with some messy results in the Big Ten and SEC. More realistically, the Tigers need to beat the Panthers on Saturday and have Miami lose to Wake Forest or Syracuse.
UNLV
The Rebels are still hanging around the Mountain West race. UNLV already lost to Boise State and won’t play Colorado State, the only other team unbeaten in league play. Getting ahead of the Rams and earning a rematch against the Broncos isn’t too hard: Colorado State needs to lose once and the Rebels win out. In the case of no head-to-head tiebreaker, the league would decide between the two by either the highest playoff ranking or, if neither is ranked, “an average of metrics.” Both categories would favor UNLV.