And then there were four.
The NFL’s 2024 postseason field has been reduced to its final quartet of teams with the conference championship games set to be played this Sunday. There are historical ramifications everywhere you look, adding layers of flavor to what should already be a pair of riveting matchups, both regular-season rematches.
How much separates the remaining clubs? Very likely less than the point spreads indicate, so we’ve ranked the four teams – from worst to best – which still have a chance to play in Super Sunday 59 in terms of their championship viability, aka playoff power rankings (previous rank in parentheses):
4. Buffalo Bills (5)
Zero disrespect intended, dearest Mafia members. Think of your Bills as fourth of 32, not four of four – but some superlative squad has to be slotted here, and only one must face a dynasty on the verge of added distinction. No doubt Buffalo did what it needed to win Sunday against Baltimore. Also, no doubt that the Ravens made rare mistakes – namely by QB Lamar Jackson and TE Mark Andrews – that greatly helped the Bills’ cause. Nevertheless, with that hurdle cleared, the perennial AFC East champions and their banged-up secondary must hit the road, where they were 5-4 this season, in a bid to defeat the perennial AFC West champion Chiefs – a team that’s 3-0 against Buffalo in the playoffs (all those wins in the past four years) with QB Patrick Mahomes and HC Andy Reid at the controls. Two months after handing K.C. its first loss of the 2024 campaign – the Bills were helped by two uncharacteristic turnovers from Mahomes, who hasn’t given the ball away in his seven games since – can Buffalo, which is a 1½-point underdog (per BetMGM), upend the reigning champs again? If so, the Bills would be one victory shy of their first championship since they lorded over the AFL in the mid-1960s.
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3. Philadelphia Eagles (3)
They’re currently 6-point favorites to beat the Commanders, whom they split their season series with, though QB Jalen Hurts was concussed early in the second game – and probably won’t be fully healthy for the rubber match. That’s a real concern. Hurts’ mobility is a huge aspect of his effectiveness – whether for navigating the pocket, leaving it or using his typically strong legs to tunnel into the end zone on Philly’s patented “tush push.” He opened the scoring against the Rams last weekend with a 44-yard TD scamper but, after suffering seven sacks and even more punishment throughout the day, Hurts could barely safeguard himself on a balky knee by game’s end. Never known for his prowess as a pure passer (129.5 yards per game in postseason), if Hurts is rendered one-dimensional, so, too, might an offense that’s so reliant on RB Saquon Barkley – and he doubtless would have been the focus of Washington’s defense game plan under any circumstances. Barkley needs 148 more yards to break Hall of Famer Terrell Davis’ single-season rushing record (playoffs included) of 2,476 yards in 1998. Yet aside from Barkley’s heroics, Philadelphia also might have the best defense (+6 turnover differential in postseason), which should have rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell (shoulder) back, and offensive line in the league – and those units might be enough to carry the NFC East champions past Washington.
2. Washington Commanders (7)
If playoff performance was part of the equation when considering who the league MVP should be, then rookie Jayden Daniels might be the front-runner. He’s the first rookie quarterback to win two road games in one postseason in this franchise’s 93-year history. The road warrior Commanders will try to go 3-0 in a playoff where home teams are currently 8-0 in games that don’t involve them. And good as Philadelphia’s defense is – it allowed the fewest points in the NFC during the regular season and fewest on a per-game basis league-wide when including postseason – Daniels burned it for five touchdown passes last month. But this has hardly been a one-man show. Going back to his Dallas days, HC Dan Quinn’s own D has usually done a nice job containing Hurts, and it’s currently accomplishing what it’s designed to do – make big plays, including six playoff takeaways. Washington’s run game also came to life with 182 yards last weekend. The Commanders are currently hitting all their marks and might just be the first team to reach the Super Bowl with a rookie behind center.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (1)
We know, they don’t really pass the eyeball test. Good thing that’s not the measure of a group that’s consistently failed it well before this season but has nevertheless won 22 of its past 24 games, one of those defeats occurring earlier this month in Denver when the Chiefs’ key starters sat. Mahomes and Reid are also 11-2 in postseason at Arrowhead, including two victories over Buffalo. And if you want to argue that core players like TE Travis Kelce and DL Chris Jones are past their primes or at the end of them, well, sure didn’t look like it last Saturday against Houston, both appearing fresh and in typically dominant January form. Allen erupted against this defense in the playoff classic these teams played three years ago, won 42-36 by the Chiefs in overtime. Otherwise, K.C. has reduced Buffalo’s leading man to a mortal as a postseason passer, though has had difficulty containing him as a runner (Allen averaged 76 rushing yards in the three previous matchups). But the Chiefs are healthy, having played in one meaningful game since Christmas, and should be well prepared given the time Reid and his staff have had for advance planning. Lastly, history seems to be on the side of an operation that’s been at least somewhat focused for a year on making more of it as the first-ever franchise to pull off a Super Bowl three-peat.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.